Statistics Profile

Patrick Stanley

2001

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	977	454 - 1499	950	1113
Épée	Direct elimination	1811	827 - 2794	1805	1931
Foil	Pool	1124	499 - 1748	849	1124
Foil	Direct elimination	1224	137 - 2310	1224	1301

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.