Statistics Profile

Lucas Brown

2003

Buccaneer Blades Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2276	2044 - 2507	1548	2276
Épée	Direct elimination	2473	2164 - 2781	2184	2649
Foil	Pool	1697	1448 - 1945	979	1697
Foil	Direct elimination	2136	1822 - 2449	1638	2136
Saber	Pool	1437	573 - 2300	1437	1437

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.