Statistics Profile

Kai Hearty

2004

Wilmington Fencer's Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2185	1558 - 2811	2185	2427
Épée	Direct elimination	2395	1537 - 3252	2395	2395
Foil	Pool	1701	782 - 2619	1701	1701
Foil	Direct elimination	1529	336 - 2721	1529	1529
Saber	Pool	1982	1055 - 2908	1982	1982
Saber	Direct elimination	2079	640 - 3517	2079	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.