Statistics Profile

Daniel McKinney

2002

Clemson University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1469	679 - 2258	1469	1469
Foil	Direct elimination	2290	1153 - 3426	2290	2290
Saber	Pool	2149	1806 - 2491	2009	2317
Saber	Direct elimination	2201	1680 - 2721	2074	2335

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.