Statistics Profile

Ryan Mai

2003

Georgia State University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1508	1231 - 1784	1274	1540
Épée	Direct elimination	1405	799 - 2010	1239	1683
Foil	Pool	1385	960 - 1809	1191	1385
Foil	Direct elimination	1534	510 - 2557	1534	1774
Saber	Pool	1834	1054 - 2613	1834	1834
Saber	Direct elimination	1756	449 - 3062	1756	1756

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.