Statistics Profile

Matthew Clark

2006

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1642	1053 - 2230	1323	1642
Épée	Direct elimination	1351	412 - 2289	1351	1754
Foil	Pool	1780	1476 - 2083	1780	1978
Foil	Direct elimination	1995	1536 - 2453	1984	2194
Saber	Pool	1626	492 - 2759	1626	1626
Saber	Direct elimination	1891	592 - 3189	1891	1891

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.