Statistics Profile

Colin Devine

1995

UMass Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1354	895 - 1812	906	1354
Épée	Direct elimination	1495	364 - 2625	1495	1931
Foil	Pool	1010	355 - 1664	1010	1084
Foil	Direct elimination	1307	94 - 2519	1307	1307

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.