Statistics Profile

Matthew McKillop

1990

Denver Fencing Center

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1339	1098 - 1579	1287	2127
Épée	Direct elimination	1774	1347 - 2200	1774	2286
Foil	Pool	2016	842 - 3189	2016	2016
Foil	Direct elimination	2496	1236 - 3755	2496	2496

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.