Statistics Profile

Gabe Hickner

2004

University of Minnesota Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1087	657 - 1516	1053	1220
Épée	Direct elimination	1782	852 - 2711	1782	2200
Foil	Pool	805	594 - 1015	463	1026
Foil	Direct elimination	1220	916 - 1523	1187	2043
Saber	Pool	625	0 - 1349	625	1041
Saber	Direct elimination	1491	394 - 2587	1491	1902

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.