Statistics Profile

Bryan Juarez (Alex)

2002

Metro Tacoma Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1942	1702 - 2181	1942	2994
Épée	Direct elimination	2498	2192 - 2803	2430	3414
Foil	Pool	1596	1121 - 2070	1310	2788
Foil	Direct elimination	2290	1680 - 2899	2182	2480

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.