Statistics Profile

Joel Sankey

1977

Southwest Fencing Club Southwest Fencing Club Flagstaff

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1039	364 - 1713	1039	1489
Épée	Direct elimination	1222	222 - 2221	1222	1410

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.