Statistics Profile

Nathan Cohen

2008

Austin Fencers Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1760	1594 - 1925	1168	1816
Épée	Direct elimination	1856	1655 - 2056	1149	2124
Foil	Pool	1096	518 - 1673	1087	1096
Foil	Direct elimination	1470	436 - 2503	1470	1655

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.