Statistics Profile

Heather Downs

1975

Northwest Indiana Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1710	918 - 2501	1710	1710
Épée	Direct elimination	1583	396 - 2769	1583	1583
Foil	Pool	810	116 - 1503	810	810
Foil	Direct elimination	1742	514 - 2969	1742	1742

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.