The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Jason Liu and (2) Abdel Salem.

Statistics Profile

Heather Downs

1975
Is this your profile? Register with your USFA ID to claim it.
Claim profile

Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 1710 918 - 2501 1710 1710
Épée Direct elimination 1583 396 - 2769 1583 1583
Foil Pool 810 116 - 1503 810 810
Foil Direct elimination 1742 514 - 2969 1742 1742

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

Register to view this matchup

Create a free account with your USFA number to unlock projected win chances and strength changes.

Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.