Statistics Profile

Logan Downs

2011

Northwest Indiana Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1784	901 - 2666	1784	1784
Épée	Direct elimination	1896	561 - 3230	1896	1896
Saber	Pool	802	125 - 1478	802	802
Saber	Direct elimination	1649	468 - 2829	1649	1649

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.