Statistics Profile

Addison Lawrence

2007

Forge Fencing Teams DUR

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1185	620 - 1749	1023	1228
Foil	Direct elimination	1098	126 - 2069	1098	1411
Saber	Pool	1208	363 - 2052	1208	1208
Saber	Direct elimination	1633	409 - 2856	1633	1633

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.