Statistics Profile

Oscar Duke

2013

Des Moines Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1223	141 - 2304	1223	1223
Épée	Direct elimination	2137	706 - 3567	2137	2137
Foil	Pool	2912	2303 - 3520	2912	3534
Foil	Direct elimination	3373	2559 - 4186	2139	3373
Saber	Pool	2145	1156 - 3133	2145	2145
Saber	Direct elimination	1886	556 - 3215	1886	1886

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.