Statistics Profile

Sebastian Toscano

2009

Jacksonville Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	883	681 - 1084	637	1020
Foil	Direct elimination	1124	770 - 1477	1112	2216
Saber	Pool	1614	1444 - 1783	1151	1670
Saber	Direct elimination	1751	1539 - 1962	1121	1868

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.