Statistics Profile

Hyrum Thomson

2008

Wasatch Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2792	1725 - 3858	2792	2792
Épée	Direct elimination	2052	672 - 3431	2052	2052
Foil	Pool	1653	1322 - 1983	1418	2709
Foil	Direct elimination	1903	1255 - 2550	1903	2352
Saber	Pool	2050	1220 - 2879	2050	2050
Saber	Direct elimination	2262	1076 - 3447	2262	2262

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.