Statistics Profile

Joyce Meng

2015

Lincoln Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	636	294 - 977	535	2048
Épée	Direct elimination	1239	656 - 1821	996	2079
Foil	Pool	1708	678 - 2737	1708	1708
Saber	Pool	2548	1296 - 3799	2548	2548
Saber	Direct elimination	3168	1868 - 4467	3168	3168

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.