Statistics Profile

Samuel Arnold

2004

University of Alabama in Huntsville Fencing Club Middle Tennessee Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1357	1096 - 1617	1357	1448
Épée	Direct elimination	1186	642 - 1729	1036	1549
Saber	Pool	1268	383 - 2152	1268	1268
Saber	Direct elimination	2077	982 - 3171	2077	2077

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.