Statistics Profile

Nathan Liu

1974

Academy Of Fencing Masters (AFM)

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1603	1291 - 1914	1097	1650
Épée	Direct elimination	1263	450 - 2075	1263	1872
Saber	Pool	2624	1608 - 3639	2624	2624
Saber	Direct elimination	1558	363 - 2752	1558	1558

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.