Statistics Profile

Jake Seaton

2002

University Of Tennessee Knoxville Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1241	1005 - 1476	1076	1331
Épée	Direct elimination	1284	853 - 1714	1265	2268
Foil	Pool	1626	1108 - 2143	1448	1626
Foil	Direct elimination	1772	993 - 2550	1772	2639

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.