Statistics Profile

William Folk

2003

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1245	799 - 1690	1188	1364
Épée	Direct elimination	1648	858 - 2437	1642	1972
Saber	Pool	776	305 - 1246	776	1008
Saber	Direct elimination	1294	323 - 2264	1294	1534

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.