Statistics Profile

Ethan Zhang

2011

Tim Morehouse Fencing Club (Port Chester)

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1232	1062 - 1401	387	1608
Foil	Direct elimination	1236	1013 - 1458	1091	2868
Saber	Pool	785	165 - 1404	785	785
Saber	Direct elimination	1631	454 - 2807	1631	1631

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.