Statistics Profile

Matthew van heerden

2006

Kern Athletic Fencing Foundation

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1905	975 - 2834	1905	1905
Épée	Direct elimination	1966	665 - 3266	1966	1966
Foil	Pool	1257	1003 - 1510	1135	1567
Foil	Direct elimination	1537	925 - 2148	996	1593

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.