Statistics Profile

Nathaniel Hou

2010

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	939	641 - 1236	872	1539
Épée	Direct elimination	1246	546 - 1945	1234	1799
Foil	Pool	543	79 - 1006	543	1571
Foil	Direct elimination	1183	308 - 2057	1183	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.