Statistics Profile

Macie Chan

2009

Windy City Fencing-Chicago

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1543	1375 - 1710	1143	1551
Épée	Direct elimination	1650	1432 - 1867	1076	1678
Foil	Pool	582	0 - 1379	582	582
Foil	Direct elimination	2026	893 - 3158	2026	2026

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.