Statistics Profile

Pierce Marston

2008

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1295	608 - 1981	1295	1295
Foil	Direct elimination	1774	498 - 3049	1774	1774
Saber	Pool	630	75 - 1184	630	779
Saber	Direct elimination	1528	642 - 2413	1528	2017

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.