Statistics Profile

Neil Pengelly

1974

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2544	2293 - 2794	1843	2544
Épée	Direct elimination	2659	2171 - 3146	1808	2689
Foil	Pool	2042	1487 - 2596	2042	2386
Foil	Direct elimination	2745	1723 - 3766	2228	2745

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.