Statistics Profile

Ethan Dai

2011

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1266	875 - 1656	980	1399
Épée	Direct elimination	1426	623 - 2228	1426	1606
Foil	Pool	811	480 - 1141	771	868
Foil	Direct elimination	964	143 - 1784	964	1787

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.