Statistics Profile

Colin Gilmartin

2008

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1231	1028 - 1433	1182	1883
Foil	Direct elimination	1610	1271 - 1948	1386	3127
Saber	Pool	1244	881 - 1606	1244	1614
Saber	Direct elimination	1781	943 - 2618	1781	1993

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.