Statistics Profile

Ivan Chau

2013

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1050	814 - 1285	1050	2847
Épée	Direct elimination	1820	1448 - 2191	1726	2331
Foil	Pool	1172	1002 - 1341	806	1400
Foil	Direct elimination	1591	1376 - 1805	1471	1791

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.