Statistics Profile

Roman Pogosian

2007

Plymouth/Ann Arbor Fencing Academy

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1566	1276 - 1855	1473	1675
Foil	Direct elimination	1707	1188 - 2225	1707	1899

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.