Statistics Profile

Ellen Yin

2012

Olympic Fencers Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	853	516 - 1189	737	2310
Épée	Direct elimination	1301	711 - 1890	1248	2921
Foil	Pool	598	0 - 1393	598	598
Foil	Direct elimination	1527	329 - 2724	1527	1527

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.