Statistics Profile

Alexander Shiraev

2011

Salle Auriol Seattle

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1196	512 - 1879	1196	1196
Épée	Direct elimination	1901	824 - 2977	1901	1901
Foil	Pool	481	0 - 965	322	880
Foil	Direct elimination	961	9 - 1912	961	1307

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.