Statistics Profile

Lucas Parra

2012

Fortune Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1637	1470 - 1803	607	1781
Épée	Direct elimination	1985	1815 - 2154	1411	1986
Foil	Pool	810	592 - 1027	382	929
Foil	Direct elimination	1079	642 - 1515	672	1480

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.