Statistics Profile

Elsie Day

2003

Florida State University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1010	550 - 1469	922	1062
Foil	Direct elimination	1741	867 - 2614	1659	1741
Saber	Pool	1215	665 - 1764	1215	1926
Saber	Direct elimination	1756	564 - 2947	1756	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.