Statistics Profile

Edward Wagner

2006

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1146	498 - 1793	1146	1146
Épée	Direct elimination	1920	654 - 3185	1920	1920
Foil	Pool	986	457 - 1514	986	3026
Foil	Direct elimination	1777	898 - 2655	1777	2948
Saber	Pool	786	39 - 1532	786	1114

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.