Statistics Profile

Michelle Ostrikoff

1979

Current strength

Weapon Type Strength Estimate Range* Min Max
Épée Pool 1874 1648 - 2099 1741 2036
Épée Direct elimination 2200 1808 - 2591 1559 2296
Foil Pool 1587 997 - 2176 1587 1705
Foil Direct elimination 2304 1486 - 3121 2274 2304
Saber Pool 1585 1209 - 1960 1404 1585
Saber Direct elimination 1681 940 - 2421 1681 2313

* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

Matchup against me

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

How it works

  • Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
  • The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
  • New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
  • Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
  • The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
  • Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
  • Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
  • Per-bout changes are available in bout history.