Statistics Profile

Gavin Koehnlein

2009

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1253	841 - 1664	1231	1376
Épée	Direct elimination	1658	775 - 2540	1658	2115
Foil	Pool	1648	1186 - 2109	1648	2299
Foil	Direct elimination	1384	297 - 2470	1384	2079

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.