Statistics Profile

Ethan Kao

2013

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	784	409 - 1158	784	1318
Épée	Direct elimination	1615	892 - 2337	1596	1927
Foil	Pool	678	238 - 1117	678	1209
Foil	Direct elimination	767	0 - 1631	767	1445

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.