Statistics Profile

Nicholas Creason

1987

Swordplay LA

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1034	774 - 1293	952	1397
Épée	Direct elimination	1358	753 - 1962	1084	1819
Foil	Pool	654	19 - 1288	654	864
Foil	Direct elimination	1297	388 - 2205	1297	1495

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.