Statistics Profile

William Tu

2015

LA International Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	307	85 - 528	-112	1046
Épée	Direct elimination	1180	796 - 1563	1097	1826
Foil	Pool	309	0 - 628	309	644
Foil	Direct elimination	785	105 - 1464	785	1496

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.