Statistics Profile

Ryan Dvorak

2003

Fencing Club at Indiana University Indianapolis Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2234	1404 - 3063	2234	2234
Épée	Direct elimination	1242	146 - 2337	1242	1242
Foil	Pool	1504	1081 - 1926	1116	1718
Foil	Direct elimination	1579	804 - 2353	1507	1844

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.