Statistics Profile

Vicky Zhang

2006

Research Triangle Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2041	720 - 3361	2041	2041
Foil	Pool	1191	975 - 1406	731	1495
Foil	Direct elimination	1623	1253 - 1992	1080	2000
Saber	Pool	1435	731 - 2138	1435	1435
Saber	Direct elimination	1611	597 - 2624	1611	1611

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.