Statistics Profile

Harry Ng

2015

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	975	537 - 1412	744	979
Épée	Direct elimination	1041	135 - 1946	1041	1617
Foil	Pool	805	605 - 1004	483	848
Foil	Direct elimination	1206	859 - 1552	1155	1910

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.