Statistics Profile

Jocelyn LIU

2014

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	404	0 - 1129	404	404
Épée	Direct elimination	1737	425 - 3048	1737	1737
Foil	Pool	503	149 - 856	503	745
Foil	Direct elimination	981	256 - 1705	981	1160

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.