Statistics Profile

Colin Greenwell

2011

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1244	455 - 2032	1244	1244
Épée	Direct elimination	1911	846 - 2975	1911	1911
Foil	Pool	1027	43 - 2010	1027	1027
Foil	Direct elimination	1654	439 - 2868	1654	1654

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.