Statistics Profile

Alex Tian

2014

Fencing Academy of Philadelphia - Main Line

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2025	1164 - 2885	2025	2707
Foil	Direct elimination	1840	563 - 3116	1840	1840
Saber	Pool	773	568 - 977	773	1738
Saber	Direct elimination	1492	1125 - 1858	1477	2496

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.