Statistics Profile

Lucas Oberdiek

2004

Swarthmore College Fencing Club Philadelphia Fencers Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1066	255 - 1876	1066	1066
Épée	Direct elimination	1152	148 - 2155	1152	1384
Foil	Pool	1098	794 - 1401	1075	1625
Foil	Direct elimination	1221	614 - 1827	1103	1859

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.